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Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Understanding the "Long Tail" Theory of Media Fragmentation

It's one of the major buzz phrases for Web 2.0 hipsters: "the long tail." What does it mean?

The phrase was coined in a 2004 article by Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired magazine. Per Wikipedia:

Anderson observed that products that are in low demand or have low sales volume can collectively make up a market share that rivals or exceeds the relatively few current bestsellers and blockbusters, if the store or distribution channel is large enough ... The Long Tail is a potential market, and successfully tapping in to that long tail market is often enabled by the distribution and sales channel opportunities the Internet creates...

The Long Tail has strong implications for culture and politics. Where the opportunity cost of inventory storage and distribution is high, only the most popular products are sold. But where the Long Tail works, minority tastes are catered, and individuals are offered greater choice.

In situations where popularity is determined by the lowest common denominator, the Long Tail will thus lead to improvement in a society's level of culture. Television is a good example of this: TV stations have limited time slots, so the opportunity cost of each time slot is high; stations therefore choose programs that have the broadest appeal. But as the number of TV stations grows or TV programming is distributed through other digital channels, the choice of TV programs grows and the cultural level rises...


Anderson now has a Long Tail blog and is writing a book on the topic.

PR Squared has a good post highlighting the current fragmentation of pop culture and tying it back to Anderson's theory.

Naturally, the theory has huge implications for the future of blogs and other Web 2.0 staples. As PR Squared puts it:

The 15 Minutes of Fame we each have come to expect in our lifetimes may not come on the evening news but rather among a tiny group of like-minded zealots...


Currently, the loyalty of small bands of zealots is not making bloggers particularly wealthy; via Steve Rubel, check out this blog advertising survey at Qumana.

However, money will be made -- by blog consolidators like Weblogs Inc., some individual bloggers, as well as various technology providers and content aggregators. Corporations will ultimately make blogging a basic part of their communications programs to employees, customers and investors, as well.

It just makes sense -- which means it's only a matter of time.

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